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的游戏产品类似）。",[395,496,497],{},[380,498,499,501],{},[451,500,128],{"href":489},"的模式有非常多的好处：",[395,503,504,507,508],{},[380,505,506],{},"a.可以集中人力物力将产品做得更好。比较一下 iphone 系列和","诺基亚",[380,509,510,511,513],{},"系列（今 年要推出 40 个品种）。",[380,512,386],{},"产品的单位开发成本是非常低的，但单个产品的开发费却是最高的。",[395,515,516,386,522],{},[380,517,518,519,521],{},"b.材料成本低且质量好，大规模带来的效益。",[380,520,386],{},"的成本控制也是做到极致的， 同样功能的硬件恐怕没人能达到",[380,523,524],{},"的成本。",[395,526,527,491,534],{},[380,528,529,530,533],{},"c.",[451,531,116],{"href":532},"\u002Fqudao","成本低。呵呵，不是同行的不一定能明白这话到底有什么分量（同行也未 必明白)，我是 20 年前从",[380,535,536],{},"那里学会的。那时很多做游戏机的都喜欢做很多 品种，最后下场都不太好。",[395,538,539],{},[380,540,541,542,544],{},"4.",[380,543,386],{},"的营销也是做到极致了，连广告费都比同行低很多，卖的价钱却往往很好。",[395,546,547],{},[380,548,549,550,552],{},"5.",[380,551,386],{},"的产品处在一个巨大并还有巨大成长的市场里。",[395,554,555],{},[380,556,557],{},"a. 智能手机市场有多大？你懂的！",[395,559,560,386,563],{},[380,561,562],{},"b. pad 市场有多大？你也会懂的。 总而言之，我认为",[380,564,565,566,568],{},"现在其实还处在其成长的早期，应该还有很大的空间。 扣掉现金的话，",[380,567,386],{},"的今年的未来 pe 只有 12-13 倍啊，明年可能要到 10 以下了。",[395,570,571,572,574,575,577,578,580],{},"当然，以上我说的这些点中的任何一点的改变都可能或多或少地改变",[380,573,386],{},"，如果 有",[380,576,386],{},"的股票的话，就要留心这些变化了。 我认为 Jobs 如果真请长假的话，在相当长的时间里对",[380,579,386],{},"的业务不会有大影响。 （2011-01-22）",[395,582,583,584,586],{},"网友：想了解下段总关于买",[380,585,386],{},"的思路，回头看了好多博文和评论都没找到。小 心翼翼问一下：不知道是我错过了，还是段总没说过，主要是学习为主，没有跟风的意思。因为我是一直通过琢磨段总的以前选股案例来学习和提高的。",[395,588,589,593,594,596,597,599,600,603,604,607,608,610,611,614],{},[380,590,591],{},[380,592,382],{},"：因为我认为",[380,595,386],{},"依然是低 pe 同时高增长的公司。差别在有多少人会认为",[380,598,386],{},"还会在相当长的时间增长呢？显然",[380,601,602],{},"巴菲特","不会这么认为，就像我老是觉得 人们就快要不喝可乐一样（但",[380,605,606],{},"可口可乐","的营销是绝对强的，几乎任何地方都能找 到",[380,609,606],{},"）。（2011-04-07） 网友：",[380,612,613],{},"OPPO"," 目标客户非常明确。",[395,616,617,618,620,621,623],{},"**",[380,619,382],{},"：**",[380,622,613],{}," 和 APPLE 其实有很多相同的基因，这也是我最后能看懂APPLE 的 原因之一。（2011-08-07）",[395,625,626,627,630,631,633],{},"网友：当年的",[380,628,629],{},"小霸王","学习机也差不多是",[451,632,128],{"href":489},"模式，记得当时单一款 486B 卖得很好，而且在旺季来临前就备足（生产）了货源。",[395,635,636,643,644,646],{},[380,637,638,434,640,386],{},[380,639,382],{},[380,641,642],{},"呵呵，这是我能看懂","的重要原因之一，没有那段经历，不一定会知道",[380,645,386],{},"有多厉害。（2012-02-01）",[395,648,649,434,653,656,657,660,661,668],{},[380,650,651],{},[380,652,382],{},[380,654,655],{},"本人喜欢","苹果****生意模式",[380,658,659],{},"的很重要的一点来自于自己在消费电子 20 多年的体验","，",[380,662,663],{},[380,664,386,665,391],{},[380,666,667],{},"是我一直梦寐以求但似乎难以达到的","。（2013-01-22）",[389,670,671],{"id":671},"估值",[395,673,674],{},"网友：昨天向您请教怎么投资股票，您说要懂公司。请问“懂”字怎么理解呢？一个普通人的，很平凡的人，一个没有技巧的人从哪些方面去“懂”呢？",[395,676,677,386,688,386,698,386,701],{},[380,678,679,434,681,687],{},[380,680,382],{},[380,682,683,684,386],{},"举个所谓懂的例子：",[380,685,686],{},"比如","，我在 2011 年买",[380,689,690,691,693,694,697],{},"的时候，",[380,692,386],{},"大概3000 亿市值（当时股价 310\u002F7=44），手里有 1000 亿",[451,695,55],{"href":696},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，那时候利润大概不到 200 亿。以我对",[380,699,700],{},"的理解，我认为",[380,702,703],{},"未来 5 年左右赢利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个 500 亿（去年 595 亿）。所以当时想的东西非常简单，用 2000 亿",[395,705,706,709,710,712,713,716,717,720,721,723],{},[380,707,708],{},"左右市值买个目前赚接近 200 亿\u002F年，未来 5 左右会赚到 500 亿\u002F年或以上的公司（而且还会往后继续很好）","。如果有这个结论，买",[380,711,386],{},"不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的",[451,714,83],{"href":715},"\u002Fjihuichengben","就可以决定了。",[380,718,719],{},"但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我","来说至少 20 年功夫吧。能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。不懂则千万千万别碰，我有个球友 320\u002F7=46 买了一些，结果一个回调，310\u002F7 就卖了（现在",[380,722,386],{},"加上分红 可能早就超过 200 了），还跟我讲为什么要卖的道理，从此我不再跟他说投资了。",[389,725,727,728,731,732,734],{"id":726},"谈企业文化及乔布斯离世","谈",[451,729,99],{"href":730},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","及",[380,733,403],{},"离世",[395,736,737],{},[380,738,739],{},"伟大企业---“利润之上的追求”",[395,741,742,386,751,754,755,386,758,761],{},[380,743,744,746,747,750],{},[380,745,382],{},"：我曾经一直认为 jobs 是个",[451,748,132],{"href":749},"\u002Fzaozhongren","，最近突然觉得只有 jobs 的",[380,752,753],{},"是不可能成为今天这个样子的。今天的","苹果**，jobs 的作用已经不是那么大了。",[380,756,757],{},"就算 jobs 不打算再回来，今天的",[380,759,760],{},"也会靠惯性向前的。还有就是，当年的","苹果**董事会为什么会在赶走 jobs 后又能请他回来呢？这可不是容易做到的事。",[395,763,764],{},"（2011-01-23）",[395,766,617,767,769,770,772],{},[380,768,382],{},"：**这是《",[380,771,403],{},"传》最后一章“遗产：无比辉煌的创新天堂”中的一段自述，我反复读了很多遍，字里行间跃然纸上的是一个虽有阴暗面却始终闪亮的灵魂。",[395,774,775,776,386,782,785],{},"吉姆.柯林斯在《基业长青》中曾经总结过",[380,777,778,779,781],{},"伟大企业的其中一项特质是“利润之 上的追求”，",[380,780,403],{},"和他的",[380,783,784],{},"给予了这项特质以最完美的诠释","。（2014-02-01）",[395,787,788,789,791,792,794,795,798,799,801,802,804,805,807,808,810,811,813,814,816,817,819,820,660,822,403,825,827],{},"网友：段总对",[380,790,386],{},"的顿悟，说明了经历在对公司理解上会变成财富，哈哈。段总无论是早年的",[380,793,629],{},"时期，还是",[380,796,797],{},"步步高","时期，或者最近的 ",[380,800,613],{}," 手机时期，其实从事的工作和",[380,803,386],{},"公司没有本质的区别，都是消费类电子，都是了解消费者需求做精品，对产品的追求和理解是一致的，所以段总很快就能看到",[380,806,386],{},"的“厉害”之处，这个和大部分投资人通过财报、预测所理解的公司前景是不太一样的。所以段总说的买股票就是买公司，对于公司理解的“度”上，把自己放到经营者的位置去思考，有些时候不得不说是需要一些“机缘”的。看段总",[380,809,386],{},"的仓位貌似提高不少，是因为最近一段时间看",[380,812,386],{},"看得更加明白的原因？看《",[380,815,403],{},"传》最大的体会，",[380,818,403],{},"是一个非常厉害的产品经理，除了做出优秀的产品，还搭建了优秀的",[451,821,120],{"href":471},[380,823,824],{},"失去",[380,826,404],{},"苹果**，在单品的设计能力和惊艳程度上是否会衰退**，",[395,829,830,831,833,834,836,837,839],{},"我不是很能理解？段总对于",[380,832,386],{},"的判断，是因为",[380,835,403],{},"所搭建产品",[451,838,120],{"href":471},"优异的巨大惯性延续，还是其他？",[395,841,842,849],{},[380,843,844,434,846,386],{},[380,845,382],{},[380,847,848],{},"绝大多数是去年初和中间有个时期买的，一月 21 号 option 到期后出来不少钱（主要是 put 卖出过期了），本来想买 bac 的，结果近期 bac 涨了很多，就都放 aapl 了。在没有其他目标的前提下，今天的","依然便宜，但没以前便宜了。",[395,851,852,855],{},[380,853,854],{},"有些东西进步到一定程度后其实后面的变化就不大了","，比如汽车发动机 30-40年代和现在其实没本质差别。有些国家（虽然我们很多人很看不上）40 年代就能造航空母舰，我们现在依然不行，说明由于某些原因，时间有时候帮不上大忙。",[395,857,858,869],{},[380,859,860,868],{},[380,861,386,862,391],{},[380,863,864,865,867],{},"最厉害的是现在这个",[451,866,120],{"href":471},"以及","，以我的水平我看不出谁能打破他","。",[395,871,872,873,875],{},"当然有很多以为水平比我高的人非说别人可以，当然也有自己说自己可以打败",[380,874,386],{},"的，你看看他们像吗？",[395,877,878,879,881],{},"也许，能打败",[380,880,386],{},"的人快出生了，也许正在某个地方徘徊，但怎么看都不是现在 大家知道的这些，这是个大家可以看很多年的故事。（2012-01-29）",[389,883,884],{"id":884},"关于安卓威胁的看法",[395,886,887,888,890,891,893,894,896,897,899],{},"02.网友：android（安卓）手机会是",[380,889,386],{},"的一个比较大的威胁，现在的 android的手机已经不比",[380,892,386],{},"的差多少了。",[380,895,386],{},"的强大在于有一个统一的",[451,898,120],{"href":471},"，这是",[395,901,902],{},"android 所没有的。",[395,904,905,910],{},[380,906,907,909],{},[380,908,382],{},"：说明你还是不明白谁是谁的威胁","。（2012-01-25）",[395,912,913,914,916],{},"网友 A：这一点不太明白，我对于",[380,915,386],{},"最担心的就是安卓的竞争。虽然进入 IOS",[395,918,919,920,922],{},"（",[380,921,386],{},"系统）系统的用户不太关心安卓的变化。但是安卓的进步对于新进入 IOS",[395,924,925],{},"的用户数量有很大影响，并且安卓进步很快，那么口碑会好，而口碑对于新用户",[395,927,928],{},"甚至老用户，影响会很大，是这样吗？",[395,930,617,931,933],{},[380,932,382],{},"：**再过几年你就明白了。",[395,935,936,937,940,941,943,944,946,947,949,950,952,953,955,956,958],{},"网友 H：",[380,938,939],{},"谷歌","的安卓和",[380,942,386],{}," IPHONE 的竞争关系就像大众和宝马奔驰的竞争一样，虽然都是做手机，用户群不一样。用了",[380,945,386],{},"的东西，再用安卓的，感觉就是糙，细节很粗糙。GOOGLE（",[380,948,939],{},"）发布了 Chrome 浏览器的移动版本，竟然率先在",[380,951,386],{},"的平板 IPAD 和手机 IPHONE 上发布，安卓",[451,954,120],{"href":471},"上竟然没有。这事挺有意思的，难道 GOOGLE 的人也知道哪个",[451,957,120],{"href":471},"的用户价值更大？",[395,960,961,434,963,965,966,968],{},[380,962,382],{},[380,964,386],{},"倒是像卖车的，一年出一款。3 星像",[380,967,507],{},"，结局可能也像，不信过 10-15 年再看。",[395,970,971],{},"网友 X：",[395,973,974,975,978,979,982,983,985],{},"1、",[380,976,977],{},"三星","、",[380,980,981],{},"HTC"," 一直搞机海战术，其实大部分厂商都是这招，",[380,984,386],{},"出来后，这招不灵了。htc 今年出 one 系列，说不玩换壳了，真能转性么？",[395,987,988,989,991,992,994,995,998,999,1002,1003,1005],{},"2、",[380,990,386],{},"真是独步江湖了。安卓阵营跟",[380,993,386],{},"的差距，不是简单的机子外表问题，是整个",[451,996,48],{"href":997},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","和",[451,1000,124],{"href":1001},"\u002Fshengtaixitong","的问题。如果专注研发 rom，把消费者体验提升的有戏么？魅族小米都是刷 rom 起家，oppo 的 rom 和 ui 也有独到之处，一些细节让人觉得很贴心，还有老罗也说要专注研究 rom，当然 rom 毕竟要受制于 google（",[380,1004,939],{},"）的进展。无解？",[395,1007,1008],{},"3、我发现国内很多用 iphone 的只是觉得很漂亮很炫或者纯粹是炫耀性消费，iphone 的威力他们恐怕一小半都没用到。特别是女孩子，没几个用同步功能、装备好的应用，好多只是玩玩别人帮忙装上的游戏。这类“傻瓜式”很多人在抢吧，像当年网络爆发增长时的装机系统导航网页等。",[395,1010,1011],{},[380,1012,1013,434],{},[380,1014,382],{},[1016,1017,1018,1022],"ol",{},[1019,1020,1021],"li",{},"人大概是不会变的。",[1019,1023,1024,1026,1027,1029],{},[380,1025,386],{},"以外的市场依然很大，而且上升空间也很大。专注于",[451,1028,112],{"href":453},"的企业总",[395,1031,1032],{},"是会走得远一些的。",[1016,1034,1035],{},[1019,1036,1037],{},"我也发现很多人还没有发现 iphone 的很多好处就已经很喜欢 iphone 了，所",[395,1039,1040],{},"以觉得 iphone 的潜力还很大。",[395,1042,1043,1044,1046,1047,1049,1050,1052,1053,1055],{},"网友 C：这么久了看了你的评论才有一点明白",[380,1045,386],{},"； “即使其他公司生产出了在技术上比",[380,1048,386],{},"产品还要先进一些的产品，在惯性思维上人们也未必认可，再说了，",[380,1051,386],{},"产品目前达到的技术高度也使其他公司很难造出比",[380,1054,386],{},"产品有显著性先进差异的产品了，”",[395,1057,1058,1059,1062,1063,404,1065,1067],{},"是否像",[380,1060,1061],{},"微软","当初的 286、386、奔一、奔二；，如今的双核等？今天没有",[380,1064,403],{},[380,1066,386],{},"依然在“小步快跑”？",[395,1069,1070,507,1080,386,1083,386,1089,1092],{},[380,1071,1072,434,1074,1076,1077,1079],{},[380,1073,382],{},[380,1075,386],{},"厉害的不仅仅是硬件，这是所有其他竞争对手没辙的地方。",[380,1078,977],{},"顶多不过是新的",[380,1081,1082],{},"而已，对",[380,1084,1085,1086,1088],{},"没有威胁。",[380,1087,386],{},"的 business model 实在是强大，其他的“对手”已经难以撼动",[380,1090,1091],{},"了。","（2012-02-05）",[395,1094,1095,1096,1098,1099,1101],{},"03.网友：段总怎么看 GOOGLE（",[380,1097,939],{},"）呢？你说看不懂那个自动驾驶汽车。呵呵，确实有点偏的感觉。google 这两天发布好多新东东。1、那个眼镜也有点怪怪的，有点偏。2、google Nexus Q 有点意思哦，挺喜欢的，如果便宜点真想弄一个玩玩。3、 Nexus 7 不错，可惜没有后置摄像头，kindle fire 麻烦了。4、安卓4.1 也在进步，系统一直在完善啊，假以时日，能逼近 IOS（",[380,1100,386],{},"系统）么。",[395,1103,1104,1111,1112,1114,1115,386,1118,386,1121,386,1126,386,1131,1134],{},[380,1105,1106,434,1108,391],{},[380,1107,382],{},[380,1109,1110],{},"我一直喜欢 google，觉得 google 是好公司，但只是明白其部分的","而已。所以前段时间把手里的一部分 google 换成",[380,1113,386],{},"了，当时差 90 几块哈。也许哪天我还会换回来，看谁涨（或掉哈）得快了。",[380,1116,1117],{},"至于会不会逼近 IOS 的问题，作为",[380,1119,1120],{},"的用户，我其实根本就不知道也不关心，除非哪天我自己觉得",[380,1122,404,1123,1125],{},[451,1124,112],{"href":453},"不好了。一旦进入",[380,1127,404,1128,1130],{},[451,1129,124],{"href":1001},"的用户实际上不太关心安卓的变化，所以我其实一直不认为安卓是在和",[380,1132,1133],{},"竞争。","（2012-06-28）",[389,1136,1138,1139,1141],{"id":1137},"关于安卓苹果体验差距的看法","关于安卓、",[380,1140,386],{},"体验差距的看法",[395,1143,1144,1145,1147],{},"04.网友:请教一下为什么安卓的体验总是差强人意，",[380,1146,386],{},"都出来这么久了还是差距蛮大的，这是为什么？按道理来说有个样板在那里学应该很快能学到的，而且那么多人去研究。",[395,1149,1150,1157,1158,1160,1161,1163,1164,1167,1168,1170,1171,404,1173,1175,1176,998,1178,1180],{},[380,1151,1152,434,1154,386],{},[380,1153,382],{},[380,1155,1156],{},"安卓本身占用资源大，比如如果都是两核或 4 核的表现就要差不少，加上大家看到的","的东西是几十年积累下来的，安卓要全面达到恐怕不太可能。但是，安卓的表现其实已经很不错了，已经比当年用",[380,1159,507],{},"的智能机的感觉强了许多倍，某些使用方面和",[380,1162,386],{},"各有特色也是一定会有的，而且价钱还可以便宜很多。未来安卓手机之间的",[451,1165,108],{"href":1166},"\u002Fchayihua","会越来越小，",[380,1169,977],{},"的价钱要挺住不容易。",[380,1172,386],{},[451,1174,124],{"href":1001},"会保住特别喜欢或习惯的用户，所以受安卓的影响不会像想象那么大。不过，有",[380,1177,386],{},[380,1179,977],{},"在上面顶着价格，其他卖安卓智能机的企业应该还有一段不错的小日子。（2013-01-23）",[395,1182,1183,1184,1187,1188,1190],{},"05.网友：段总在 10 年初的时候提到过会谈一谈如何错过",[380,1185,1186],{},"腾讯","的，现在怎么看？我觉得他的模式比",[380,1189,386],{},"还牛，只是估值似乎永远也下不来。",[395,1192,1193,1200,1201,1203,1204,1206],{},[380,1194,1195,434,1197,1186],{},[380,1196,382],{},[380,1198,1199],{},"让","上 6000 亿美金试试？",[380,1202,1186],{},"确实是不错的公司，但要成为",[380,1205,386],{},"还需要很多东西，包括大环境的变化。",[395,1208,1209,1210,434,1212,1214,1215,1217,1218,1220,1221,1223],{},"顺便说一下什么叫",[380,1211,391],{},[380,1213,391],{},"就是赚钱的模式，最后赚得越多的模式就应该越好。",[380,1216,386],{},"现在一年的利润比中国所有互联网公司（包括",[380,1219,1186],{},"）从开办以来赚得利润的总和都要多，你说",[380,1222,1186],{},"的模式更好的逻辑是啥？（2013-03-04）",[389,1225,1226],{"id":1226},"市场空间和企业份额判断",[395,1228,1229,1236],{},[380,1230,1231,434,1233,386],{},[380,1232,382],{},[380,1234,1235],{},"现在 apple id 大概两个多亿，去年的软收入已经有好像 120 亿了。估 计 10 年后 apple id 怎么着都有 15 到 20 亿了，10 年后光这块一年也得300-500 亿吧？这里面不知道有没有包括广告收入，但看过一个资料，说","产品",[395,1238,1239,1240,1242],{},"的广告 流量的有效性是移动设备里最高的，大概是安卓的 3 倍左右，但没看到进一步的 详细东西。估计 10 年后 apple id 怎么着都有 15 到 20 亿了。",[380,1241,386],{},"未来会推什么 不是我能想出来的，但 itv 是个很靠谱的产品，只是不知道还要多久。iwatch 看起来也有点意思，不像是空穴来风。",[395,1244,1245,1246,1248],{},"网友：我还有一个问题，就是记得去年您提到",[380,1247,386],{}," iphone 的市场占有率,我想在估值的时候一定要一个大概能达到多大的市场份额吧？那要怎么样来评估呢？",[395,1250,1251,1258],{},[380,1252,1253,434,1255,386],{},[380,1254,382],{},[380,1256,1257],{},"我认为","最后至少会有 20%+的市场份额，但超过 40%可能就有点不正常了。（2012-02-03）",[395,1260,1261],{},"06.网友：我倒是没想过您看不看得到这些（若您觉得我表达有误我这边先道个歉），这只是我自己想到的问题，提出来讨论而已，并无冒犯或挑战的意思。您的意思是不是说这些问题的确存在，但不构成影响",[395,1263,1264,1266,1267,1269,1270,1272,1273,1275,1276,386,1279,1281,1282,1284],{},[380,1265,382],{},"：其实我不知道你想问什么。你的问题是为什么 iphone 的用户忠诚度不是 100%么？或者因为 iphone 的忠诚度只有不到 90%，所以 iphone 就不行了么？或者身边有人把原来的 iphone 换成了",[380,1268,977],{},"或别的大屏，所以以后还有没有人会再买 iphone 么？如果你不在乎我对",[380,1271,386],{},"的看法，为什么要问我关于",[380,1274,386],{},"的问题呢？顺便说一下，这个回答其实不是只给你的。",[380,1277,1278],{},"另外提醒一下，我们是卖安卓（大屏）手机的，我知道这个市场有多大。建议有些人想一下",[380,1280,404],{},"生意模式**，如果觉得",[380,1283,977],{},"的模式更好的话，这个博客其实不适合你们。**（2013-02-16）",[395,1286,1287],{},"07.网友：在雪球网看到您说过“顺便说下，我们公司是卖 andriod 手机的，我想我真的能理解 andriod 的生命力在哪里。” 可否详细说说您对安卓生命力的理解？",[395,1289,1290,1297,1298,1300],{},[380,1291,1292,434,1294,386],{},[380,1293,382],{},[380,1295,1296],{},"移动市场这么大，没买","的怎么着先的买个安卓吧？长期来讲，",[380,1299,386],{},"产品很难超过 30%的，余下 70%基本上就是安卓。未来 10 年移动设备至少能卖个50 亿（我觉得能到 100 亿以上）以上吧。(2013-03-03)",[395,1302,1303,1304,1306,1307,1309,1310,1312,1313,1315,1316,1318,1319,1321],{},"网友 M：用习惯 iphone 的人，一般改用安卓系统会不习惯的，因为",[380,1305,386],{},"只要 ID一输，程序，音乐，通讯录等等都会回来，通过 apple tv，把其他设备上的图像、视频、音乐随时就可以在电视上显示出来。通过查找 iphone 随时可以知道在外地的亲人在哪，然后通过 face time 不花钱视频。当 imac 电脑的图像一键显示到投影上，当随时在中国用 iphone 打开在美国家的电脑操作并打开摄像头看自己的宠物捣乱了没，你就会感觉科技的力量，",[380,1308,386],{},"是世界第一大公司是理所当然的。还有",[380,1311,386],{},"绝对是",[451,1314,34],{"href":457},"，你想要的功能它基本都已经实现了。安卓系统这些功能可能借助其他应用也可以实现，但感觉一切都乱，设备互联性太差。",[380,1317,386],{},"是个大系统，音乐、视频、游戏、软件、相机、电脑……的钱它全赚了，关键你买的音乐，视频，程序等一辈子都是你的，但必须在他的设备上才可以用，谁还会轻易换设备。比如我都买了一万多的软件和音乐了，换其他的设备还须再买，谁还换设备，除了它太差了。apple tv 一定要买，它可以把所有",[380,1320,386],{},"的设备都联起来。",[395,1323,1324,1337,1339,1340,1342],{},[380,1325,1326,434,1328,386],{},[380,1327,382],{},[380,1329,1330,1331,1336],{},"呵呵，",[380,1332,1333,1334],{},"你说得很清楚，这个就叫",[451,1335,124],{"href":1001},"。安卓的问题是现在卖得越多，将来可能就越乱，慢慢跑到",[451,1338,124],{"href":1001},"里的人就会越多。还有一个重要的东西，就是",[380,1341,386],{},"的安全性。那么多企业要用 iphone 和 ipad 是有道理的。美国 500 强里 95%开始用 iphone 和 ipad 系统，国际 500 强 85%开始用",[1344,1345,1346],"ul",{},[1019,1347,1348],{},"---库克在股东大会上讲的。",[395,1350,1351],{},"听说目前好像只有 iphone 不能被装窃听器，其他的手机绝大部分好像都可以，怕被人窃听的要小心了。（2013-03-04）",[395,1353,1354,1355,1357,1358,1360,1361,1363,1364,1366],{},"08.网友：最近一直在想",[380,1356,386],{},"这个生意，如果某次发布的新产品失败了（市场反响不好），这对",[380,1359,386],{},"的影响应该很大，这种生意还是好生意吗？虽然",[380,1362,386],{},"现在的客户粘性很大，但是我想也经不起连续 2 年的新产品失败吧，而且",[380,1365,939],{},"这个对手也不是吃素的。",[395,1368,1369,1380,1381,1383],{},[380,1370,1371,434,1373,386],{},[380,1372,382],{},[380,1374,1375,1376,1379],{},"不知道你一直在想什么。",[380,1377,1378],{},"你见过在别的同行不停推新品的同时能够按兵不动一年营业额依然不掉的公司么？而且这还是在上个产品不那么轰动的前提","下。如果这还不叫模式好，那什么叫模式好？现在轮到","出招了。顺便补充一下，凡是认为 iphone5 是失败产品的人都应该问一下在人类历史上有过几个",[451,1382,128],{"href":489},"比 iphone5 成功的？（2013-09-04）",[389,1385,1386],{"id":1386},"从回收价格看价值",[395,1388,1389,1390,1392],{},"09.网友：",[380,1391,386],{},"能够做到垃圾中的不是那么垃圾，还有人要，真的是个奇迹。",[395,1394,1395,1399,1400,1402],{},[380,1396,1397,417],{},[380,1398,382],{},"产品的残值高也说明",[380,1401,386],{},"的东西确实好。（2013-12-13）",[395,1404,1405,1406,1408],{},"网友：今天看到",[380,1407,386],{},"官方出售二手 iphone 的消息，包括各型号的回收价与售价",[395,1410,1411],{},"对比……，段总怎么看？",[395,1413,1414,1418,1419,1421],{},[380,1415,1416],{},[380,1417,382],{},"：我的看法是，只有",[380,1420,386],{},"能够做这件事情，别人其实做不了。(2015-04-",[395,1423,1424],{},"14 )",[395,1426,1427,1428,1430,1431,1433,1434,1436,1437,1439],{},"10.网友：",[380,1429,386],{},"的威力——“十年生死两茫茫，安卓兴，联发亡。低端市场，处处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，诺记死，",[380,1432,386],{},"王。摩托",[380,1435,977],{},"忽还乡，拼低端，实在忙。中兴亲，华为新，魅族创新强。",[380,1438,981],{}," 出机皇，日日换大梁。手机业，已无常，全都忙转行，山寨泪千行…… ”将来会怎样呢？",[395,1441,1442,1449],{},[380,1443,1444,434,1446,386],{},[380,1445,382],{},[380,1447,1448],{},"呵呵，受到","影响的远远不止你提到的这些手机公司。比如所有卖电脑尤其是手提电脑的公司受到的影响巨大。甚至连网游公司都间接受到很大影响。仔细想想会觉得很有趣的。（2012-02-25）",[395,1451,1452,1453,1455,1456,1458,1459,1461,1462,1465,1466,1468],{},"网友：",[380,1454,386],{},"表现为一个摇滚巨星，在外在光环的背后，其实有一个强大的实力，这是容易被人忽视的地方。 1）它在专业领域中关于价格、物料成本控制具有强有力的优势，在产品上足可以发动一个价格战争。貌似高端的形象之上，IPAD 3的产品价格其实是相当便宜的，与对手的产品价格相当，",[380,1457,386],{},"有能力真正打一个价格战。 2）",[380,1460,386],{},"产品除外表时尚，而且功能吸引人，",[451,1463,104],{"href":1464},"\u002Fpinpai","卓越这些优势下，容易被人忽视的是设计、制造和供应链管理。举例说，一般让山寨厂商把 iphone 零件全买下来，它的成本就和 iphone 成品价格相当，iPad 成本比这低得多，仍然能保证获得巨额利润。iphone 一代到四代价格不变，却能越来越大规模的零件升级这一点极具优势，那么相信 iPad3 有一个光明的前景。 只要 iPad 3 不出现重大纰漏，类似当年的 iphone4 死亡易握，它的销售前景极好。",[380,1467,386],{},"公司继续保持领先优势。",[395,1470,1471,1479,1480,1482,1483,1485,1486,1488,1490,1491,1493,1494,1496],{},[380,1472,1473,1475,1476,386],{},[380,1474,382],{}," ：",[380,1477,1478],{},"其实","的强大实力是不容易也不应该被忽视的，除非你有意去忽视，但鸵鸟的办法不会有任何帮助。任何一个被",[380,1481,386],{},"直接或间接、现在或未来影响到的行业里的企业大概早晚都要面对",[380,1484,386],{},"的强大实力的。随便举几个已经受到影响的行业或产品吧：手机、电脑、手提电脑、游戏（包括网游）、游戏机、中低端相机和录像机、音乐、电影、书、电视、网络、运营商、所有相关产品的零售、几乎所有的电子消费品……欢迎补充。找到在",[380,1487,386],{},[451,1489,124],{"href":1001},"里生存的方式也许比挑战",[380,1492,386],{},"要来的更现实一些。能够避开",[380,1495,386],{},"也许是另一个办法。（2012-03-12）",[395,1498,1499,386,1504,386,1507,1510,1511,1513,1514,386,1517,1520],{},[380,1500,1501,1503],{},[380,1502,382],{},"：你可以想象一下，如果你是",[380,1505,1506],{},"的同行，你能用什么办法像",[380,1508,1509],{},"一样让用户拥有如此高的黏度，盈利能力还如此好。靠卖低价的都不是一个级别的","哈，",[380,1512,386],{},"产品的实际成本比任何同行都低不少，主要低在除材料成本以外的地方。",[380,1515,1516],{},"如果你觉得你能找到一个办法，那就说明",[380,1518,1519],{},"其实不厉害。","（2012-02-06）",{"title":1522,"searchDepth":12,"depth":12,"links":1523},"",[1524,1525,1526,1527,1528,1530,1531],{"id":391,"depth":16,"text":391},{"id":671,"depth":16,"text":671},{"id":726,"depth":16,"text":726},{"id":884,"depth":16,"text":884},{"id":1137,"depth":16,"text":1529},"关于安卓、苹果体验差距的看法",{"id":1226,"depth":16,"text":1226},{"id":1386,"depth":16,"text":1386},null,"段永平分析苹果商业模式，论其单品策略、生态系统护城河、消费者导向及长期投资价值。","md",{},true,"\u002Fdao\u002Fspeeches\u002Fduanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":262,"description":1533},"2011年买入苹果思考｜大道总纲","dao\u002Fspeeches\u002Fduanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao","o6JNLiuUERcfAxC9EzuFUhdhe05RV2QVF-hBjq2Bgrc","dao",1778608453991]